Results of a new poll administered by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were released. The poll asked respondents from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
The results show that 48.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% are going to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27 among 800 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.