Detroit Free PressDetroit Free Press released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Detroit Free PressDetroit Free Press poll results
The results show that 42.0% of interviewees are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 10 to September 13, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Detroit Free PressDetroit Free Press poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that the PollyVote is 1.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.