Polly the parrot today forecasts a national major-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. With a vote share of 56.3% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 52.1% in expectation polls is noticeably high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. Back then,expectation polls predicted a vote share of 55.0% for the Democratic candidate.