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Methods widely agree on the election outcome


Polly the parrot today forecasts a national major-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.2%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. With a vote share of 56.3% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 52.1% in expectation polls is noticeably high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. Back then,expectation polls predicted a vote share of 55.0% for the Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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