PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 61.0% of participants will give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% will give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 15 to April 17. A total of 879 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's prediction is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.