Kansas: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will end up with 64.0%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, as they can contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 56.6% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 7.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.