DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 91.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 8.1%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 42.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.