DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 66.5% for Clinton, and 33.5% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Vermont.