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DeSart model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 64.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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