The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 64.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.