Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 1000 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.