OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is significant.