Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest 538 (polls-plus) model

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.8%. In comparison, on September 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 48.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.8%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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