WTHR/Howey Politics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
WTHR/Howey Politics poll results
According to the results, 36.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% plan to give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 6 to September 8. A total of 600 likely voters responded. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't rely too much on the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 45.6% for Clinton and 54.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Indiana has Trump at 55.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the WTHR/Howey Politics poll Trump's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 54.9% of the two-party vote in Indiana. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.5 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.