West Virginia: Trump with whopping advantage in new PPP (D) poll
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 30.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1, among a random sample of 1201 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.