West Virginia: Trump with whopping advantage in new PPP (D) poll

PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Of those who responded, 30.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1, among a random sample of 1201 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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