Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.