UtahPolicy/Dan Jones published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
The results show that 27.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 8 to June 17 with 614 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.