UtahPolicy/Dan Jones released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
According to the results, former New York Senator Hillary Clinton and real estate developer Donald Trump can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 38.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from March 23 to April 5. A total of 600 adults responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. For comparison: Only 42.9% was obtained by Clinton in the UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll on September 13, for Trump this result was 57.1%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 39.1% and Trump 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. Clinton has 10.9 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Utah. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is significant.