Results of a new national poll administered by LA Times were distributed. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 13 with 2550 respondents. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump. To compare: 48.3% was gained by Clinton in the LA Times poll on September 13, for Trump this number was only 51.7%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 48.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 4.7 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 5.9 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.