Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Texas for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 36.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10, among a random sample of 700 likely voters.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 46.2% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Texas polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 54.8%. Compared to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Texas. This means that the PollyVote is 2.1 points above his polling numbers.