Results of a new poll administered by Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar (R) were announced. The poll asked interviewees from South Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar (R) poll results
According to the results, 38.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 53.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 6 to September 12. A total of 1247 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 41.8% for Clinton and 58.2% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 54.7% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 3.5 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.