BloombergBloomberg released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
BloombergBloomberg poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 9 to September 12, among a random sample of 802 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 47.3% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Trump at 49.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the BloombergBloomberg poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, the PollyVote is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.