CNN-ORC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
CNN-ORC poll results
The results show that 46.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 50.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 12. A total of 769 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 47.9% for Clinton and 52.1% for Trump. To compare: 53.8% was gained by Clinton in the CNN-ORC poll on March 6, for Trump this result was only 46.2%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 50.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CNN-ORC poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 48.6% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.