Results of a new poll carried out by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from January 18 to January 20, among a random sample of 800 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump. On September 14 Clinton obtained 57.8% in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll and Trump obtained only 42.2%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.