Massachusetts: New WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC poll has Trump behind by 29 points

WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

The results show that 60.0% of participants plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10. A total of 506 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently runs at 63.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.8% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the PollyVote is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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