Results of a new poll administered by Colby College/SurveyUSA were released. The poll asked interviewees from Maine for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Colby College/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 4 to September 10, among a random sample of 779 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.9% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maine has Clinton at 54.6% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Colby College/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.