Results of a new poll conducted by Western NE University were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Western NE University poll results
According to the results, 62.0% of interviewees will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 1 to April 10 with 497 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 70.5% for Clinton and 29.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 63.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. Relative to her numbers in the Western NE University poll Clinton's poll average is 7.2 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, Polly's forecast is 6.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.