OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.