Clout Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R) poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13, among a random sample of 701 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 7.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.