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Latest 538 (polls-plus) model: Trump and Clinton in a tossup


The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump. In comparison, on September 13 Trump was predicted to achieve 48.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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