CNN-ORC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
CNN-ORC poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 50.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 7 to September 12, among a random sample of 788 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 47.9% for Clinton and 52.1% for Trump. To compare: 53.8% was gained by Clinton in the CNN-ORC poll on April 27, for Trump this result was only 46.2%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Florida. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CNN-ORC poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.