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DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead in Hawaii

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The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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