Ipsos/Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
According to the results, 40.0% of participants intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out via Internet from September 8 to September 12 among 1127 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.4 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.