Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Issues and Leaders index model

The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.7%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be treated with caution, as they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.1%. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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