Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 48.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 10 to April 11. A total of 1043 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump. For comparison: 58.8% was gained by Clinton in the Emerson poll on September 14, for Trump this result was only 41.2%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.2% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that the PollyVote is 2.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is negligible.