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Clinton leads in Vermont by 21 points in new Emerson poll


Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Emerson poll results




The results show that 47.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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