Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.