In today's update, Polly predicts that Clinton will gain 53.0% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.0% for Trump.
This is what the component methods say
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now in the lead by 50.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.8% of the vote.
Trump lost 11.8 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
The expectation polls forecast of 52.3% for the candidate of the Democratic party is quite high in comparison to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 54.9% for.