Results of a new national poll carried out by Quinnipiac were circulated. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out via phone from September 8 to September 13 among 960 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. On August 24 Clinton received only 44.6% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.7%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.