KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 57.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11. A total of 678 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California sees Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.5% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.