Results of a new poll conducted by Elway were spread. The poll asked participants from Washington for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump. In the most recent Elway poll on September 12 Clinton received only 35.8%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.