LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 6 to September 12. A total of 2665 participants responded. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they can incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump. In the latest LA Times poll on September 12 Clinton obtained 50.0%, while Trump obtained only 50.0%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Trump at 48.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 3.5 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 4.7 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.