PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular importance.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 9 and September 11. The sample size was 878 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. On April 7 Clinton obtained 55.7% in the PPP (D) poll and Trump obtained only 44.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Virginia. Compared to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Virginia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.