Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Vox.Com model

The Vox.Com model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.2%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Vox.Com model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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