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Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Time-for-change model


The Time-for-change model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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