Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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