Trial-heat model: Clinton with small lead

The Trial-heat model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.8%. Relative to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points worse.

The Trial-heat model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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