The Issues and Leaders model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.7%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.8 percentage points better.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.