Polly today predicts a national major-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump.
Looking at the component methods
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
In contrast to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. With a vote share of 49.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Trump lost 11.1 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 52.4% in Citizen forecasts is noticeably high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 54.9% for the Democratic candidate.