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The PollyVote forecasts win for Clinton


Polly today predicts a national major-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump.

Looking at the component methods

There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

In contrast to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.2%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. With a vote share of 49.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump lost 11.1 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 52.4% in Citizen forecasts is noticeably high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 54.9% for the Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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