NBC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC News poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 29 and September 4. The sample size was 3222 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-1.0 percentage point. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the NBC News poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.5 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.