Primary model: Trump is in the lead

The Primary model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.2%. Relative to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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