Primary model: Trump is in the lead
The Primary model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 52.5%.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.2%. Relative to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.