Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R) poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13. A total of 701 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 7.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.