New PPP (D) poll in Maryland: Trump trails by a whopping margin

PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

The results show that 61.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from April 15 to April 17 with 879 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump. For comparison: Only 31.5% was obtained by Clinton in the PPP (D) poll on September 12, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.

Results compared to other polls

Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.0%. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's prediction is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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